USD Performed Shockingly Poor As “Safe Haven” During Iran / Israel Escallation and Wider War Threats

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The U.S. dollar has long worn the crown of the so-called “safe haven”—a currency investors flee to in times of global instability. So when tensions between Iran and Israel flared, traders expected the usual: a USD rally backed by American strength and geopolitical dominance.

What they got instead was a cautionary tale in capital flight.

Enter the Big Beautiful Bill, a quietly terrifying legislative proposal that slaps a 3.5% exit tax—disguised as a “transfer fee”—on foreign remittances. The rationale? Prop up the dollar by punishing anyone trying to move money out of the U.S. financial system. In effect, it’s capital controls dressed up in a red, white, and blue tie—the kind of behavior you’d expect from Argentina, not the land of the free. Countries like Switzerland, Hong Kong and Dubai absolutely love it as they welcome inflows of investor money diverting away from the US. When Elon Musk says “Kill The Bill” it’s not personal – it is literally to invoke fiscal responsibility.

The market responded fast:

According to a recent private survey of 500 global investors conducted in Q2 2025, sentiment toward U.S.-based assets has taken a sharp turn. While traditionally seen as a fortress of stability, the combination of proposed capital controls, unchecked military spending, and a deteriorating geopolitical leverage has triggered widespread capital reallocation. The survey revealed a significant pivot away from the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, with investors favoring hard assets, decentralized finance, and select non-aligned emerging markets. The results suggest a growing consensus: the USD is no longer the unchallenged king of safe-haven flows.

Asset Class / Destination% of Respondents Increasing Exposure% Decreasing Exposure
U.S. Dollar (USD)12%71%
U.S. Treasuries9%68%
Gold & Precious Metals56%5%
Cryptocurrencies (BTC, ETH, etc.)48%11%
Emerging Markets (LATAM, ASEAN)41%14%
European Hard Assets (Real Estate)37%8%
Chinese Yuan (CNY)18%44%
Swiss Franc (CHF)26%9%

*Private investor survey results

So much for safe haven status.

Foreign investors, wealth managers, and even American citizens living abroad are waking up to the risk: parking money in the U.S. no longer offers safety. It offers surveillance, taxation, and political risk. The message is clear—your capital may not be yours to move.

The Swamp Is Not Drained—It’s Just Better Funded

What makes this even more surreal is the betrayal of the very doctrine that was supposed to save America from economic rot. Trump-era promises of “draining the swamp” and cutting spending have fizzled. The deficit hawks molted into debt doves overnight. Government spending—particularly on the military—has not shrunk by a single dime.

Instead, Donald Trump now embraces the same debt treadmill he once condemned, no longer leading a revolution but managing a swampy status quo. Fiscal responsibility has left the building, replaced by the usual Pentagon largesse and hollow slogans.

NATO’s Quiet Revolt

To make matters worse for Washington’s hegemonic dreams, its NATO “partners” have begun playing their own game. Canada, always eager to signal loyalty while doing the opposite, announced it will indeed boost military spending—just not with the U.S. Instead, it will funnel billions into resource development deals with the UK and EU, cleverly marketed as “defense cooperation.”

Translation: NATO allies are increasing their budgets without feeding the U.S. military-industrial beast.

Trump’s fantasy of forcing Europe to underwrite Raytheon and Lockheed stock buybacks is fading fast. The empire he wanted to milk isn’t playing ball.

Who Will Bail Out the Dollar?

And so, the dollar weakens. The “safe haven” bleeds credibility. Investors flee to gold, Bitcoin, and yes—ironically—even decentralized memes like DOGE, because they at least obey math instead of committees.

At this point, maybe we should just ask AIPAC what the official policy on the U.S. budget is. Their agenda seems to get passed with more efficiency than any legislation aimed at helping the average voter, so they must have a plan for the Treasury, right?

In the world of fiat fantasy and broken promises, it’s only fitting that the strongest lobby might be America’s last real central bank.

John Glover

John Glover

John Glover (MSC, MBA) interviews CEO's from around the world. He is an investor in people, a business analyst and writes about his expertise as well as interesting areas of convergence with his hobbies, such as the digital entertainment industry.