EU Liberals Quietly Debate Free Trade Deal with China to Counter Trump’s Tariffs

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With the Euro in tatters (USD/EUR) and led by a divided, weakened Germany where the left is feeling the heat, think tank members are talking. It has been revealed that key liberal factions within the European Union are discreetly debating the possibility of a free trade agreement (FTA) with China as a strategic countermeasure against the looming prospect of a second Trump presidency and the tariffs that would come with it. While such a deal could provide Europe with critical economic leverage, it is also a political gamble that could alienate the United States and embolden China’s economic footprint in Europe. With the European far right surging in popularity, EU liberals may soon run out of time to push through such an agreement before political tides shift.

They Think EU-China Free Trade Deal Could Kill Two Birds with One Stone

At its core, an FTA with China would serve two major objectives for the EU: hedging against Trump’s tariffs and forcing China to dismantle its protectionist economic policies that have long disadvantaged European businesses.

  1. Shielding Europe from Trump’s America-First Trade Policies

With a Trump return increasingly plausible, European businesses are bracing for another wave of tariffs and trade disruptions. Trump has already floated the idea of imposing a universal 10% tariff on all imports and targeting industries where the EU is competitive, such as automobiles, agriculture, and luxury goods. If this happens, European exports to the U.S. could take a substantial hit, forcing the EU to seek alternative markets.

China offers an alternative A trade deal would provide European firms with improved access to the massive Chinese market, allowing them to redirect exports that might otherwise face barriers in the U.S.

Diversification of economic dependencies By strengthening trade ties with China, the EU could reduce its reliance on the U.S. market, ensuring a more balanced global trade portfolio.

  1. Eliminating China’s Protectionist Trade Practices

China has long been criticized for its state-backed industrial policy, which includes subsidizing domestic industries, enforcing restrictive market access rules, and using regulatory loopholes to favor Chinese firms over foreign competitors. A well-structured free trade agreement could force China to dismantle these barriers in exchange for deeper access to European markets.

Leveling the playing field EU firms could benefit from better access to China’s consumer market, financial services sector, and supply chain networks without being strong-armed into joint ventures or forced technology transfers.

Legal enforcement mechanisms The EU would likely push for legally binding trade dispute mechanisms, ensuring China follows through on commitments—a stark contrast to previous deals like the stalled Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI), which lacked proper enforcement.

The Risks: Alienating the U.S. and Strengthening China’s Influence

While the economic benefits of such a deal are clear, the geopolitical risks could be profound. The U.S. and EU have long been strategic allies, and a closer economic alignment with China could strain transatlantic relations in critical ways.

  1. Losing U.S. Support on Security and Defense

If the EU is perceived as prioritizing China over the U.S., Washington could retaliate beyond trade. The U.S. is already frustrated with European reluctance to meet NATO defense spending commitments, and further distancing could push the U.S. to reassess its security commitments to Europe.

Could the U.S. reduce its NATO role If Trump were to win, he has already hinted at scaling back American involvement in NATO, potentially exposing Europe to greater security risks.

Technology restrictions The U.S. could limit European access to cutting-edge technology, particularly in AI, semiconductors, and defense industries.

  1. A China-Dominated Europe

Critics fear that an FTA could open the floodgates for cheap, state-backed Chinese products, overwhelming European industries in strategic sectors.

Industrial collapse European manufacturers, particularly in high-tech industries like EVs and green energy, could struggle to compete with China’s aggressive pricing tactics.

Political influence creeping in A deeper economic relationship would inevitably translate into greater Chinese political leverage in the EU, making it harder for Europe to push back against Beijing on issues like human rights, Taiwan, or security concerns.

The “Russia Russia Russia is coming” narrative crumbles:

After nearly three years of war, Russia’s failure to fully conquer even half of Ukraine has exposed the exaggerated threat narrative pushed by the European left. The notion that Russia posed an imminent danger to all of Europe is now untenable, forcing those who championed it to either acknowledge their dishonesty or risk losing credibility. This admission is not just a matter of political integrity—it is a prerequisite for any serious shift toward China. Given the deepening strategic ties between Moscow and Beijing, the EU cannot simultaneously paint Russia as an existential enemy while seeking closer economic ties with its primary ally. Before any meaningful free trade agreement with China can be pursued, the European left must first reconcile these contradictions and own up to the fear-mongering that shaped its stance on Russia.

The Political Clock is Ticking: The Rise of the European Far Right

EU liberals who advocate for a China trade deal face a shrinking window of opportunity. With the far right surging across Europe—particularly in France, Germany, and Italy—economic nationalism and skepticism toward China are on the rise.

A shift toward economic protectionism Far-right parties are likely to oppose deeper economic ties with China, favoring domestic industry protection, economic sovereignty, and a stronger transatlantic alliance with the U.S.

Upcoming elections could be decisive If right-wing parties gain more influence in the European Parliament elections in 2024, any China trade deal could become politically impossible. In the meantime, EU open borders, used by elites from the north of Europe to destroy nepotism in Southern Europe shows no sign of slowing down – and that may ultimately be on the ballot.

Conclusion: A Bold Gamble or a Strategic Necessity?

A free trade agreement between the EU and China would be a historic move with massive economic and geopolitical implications. While it could provide Europe with an economic lifeline in the face of Trump’s expected protectionism and push China toward fairer trade practices, it could also trigger backlash from the U.S. and deepen Europe’s reliance on a partner with its own strategic ambitions.

With the European political landscape shifting, the question remains Can EU liberals push this deal through before the political tide turns, or will they run out of time as the far right rises Either way, this debate is set to shape Europe’s economic and geopolitical trajectory for decades to come.